World Cup Finals Preview
It’s hard to see past the current holders and favourites. Despite Edmilson, Brazil have few injury queries and will be fielding the Fab Four of Ronaldinho, Adriano, Ronaldo, Kaka. They are also fielding 3 of the top 4 favourites for the Golden Boot. The word from all the bookies is that punters are piling on Brazil to win. Their “Total Tournament Team Goals” spread is the largest of any team at 10.6 to 11.4 goals. With a Group containing Australia, Croatia and Japan it’s unlikely many people will bet low at 10.6.
Having said that, Adriano has had a fairly average season at Inter. Looking more closely at the Golden Boot market, in spite of Ronaldo also having an indifferent season in Madrid (and looking a touch on the flabby side) he does play further forward than Ronaldinho. The Bucktooth Wonder was also top scorer in 2002 and in Brazil’s qualifying campaign.
With a lot of home support England are slight second favourites on Sporting’s Outright Winners market. France, Argentina and Germany are very close behind in the betting. On the goals front, England are predicted to score a total of just 8.6 to 9.2, and this looks generous compared to Argentina’s spread of 7.4 to 8. Unsurprisingly, Owen is favourite to be top England goalscorer. However, despite Crouch looking as ungainly as a Boris Johnson tackle his price has been moved up by the number of punters backing him to come good this summer.
A lot has been made of France’s ‘98 World Cup and Euro 2000 victories and then their failure at 2002 and 2004. They also had a poor qualifying campaign in a mediocre group with 5 draws in 10 games. However since Zizou, Makelele and Thuram came out of retirement they’ve looked a lot sharper. Despite an apparently “dodgy keeper” their first XI also boasts Henry, Trezeguet, Viera and Gallas.
The difference for France this time is that other than a strong Switzerland, who France drew twice with in the Qualifiers, they only face Togo and South Korea. Even if they are slow starters and have a hiccup they should get out of the group and enjoy a relatively easy draw.
Sporting’s pricing of Portugal, who have also been gifted a relatively easy Group, suggests that they fancy the Euro2004 runners-up to do well.
If you’re looking for an upset then Iran are worth keeping an eye on, as they are underrated by everyone. Ali Karimi - Asian player of the year - is a regular for Bayern Munich, and Ali Daei has notched up an impressive 107 international goals. In a group with Portugal, Mexico and Angola, they could shock everyone and snatch second place.
Sporting’s Total Tournament Yellow Cards market has a spread of 268 to 278. This spread is 20 points higher than four years ago, and 40 higher than eight years ago. It looks like all the recent FIFA announcements about stricter referees have been heeded by the punters pushing the price up. The price has also moved up on the “Dodgy Keepers” market (how many times a keeper will punch the ball), the spread has risen to 98 to 104 punches.
Hopefully that’s given you something to think about. For all the latest prices and to apply for your Sporting Index account, click here.