Formbook: horse racing and sports blog

The first Test at Lord’s saw more joy for the batsmen than those with the ball in hand. With both bowling attacks decimated through injury, this looks set to continue as the two teams meet for only the fifth time in a Test at Old Trafford. Younis Khan returns to bolster Pakistan’s formidable middle order, which includes three of the top seven batsmen in the world. England, however, will look to Lord’s centurion Ian Bell to fill in for Freddie.

Although Manchester showers are forecast early on, these should make way for sunnier skies and another finely balanced Test match. If you’re looking for an interesting addition to your normal punting, check out the spread betting markets on offer from Sporting Index, where new clients can claim:

Free £100 Cash for New Clients**

Open a Sporting Index account* and place ten sports bets (each with the potential to win and lose £20), and you can claim a free £100 straight into your account**.

*Credit and suitability checks, **terms and conditions apply. See site for further details about an account with Sporting Index. Sports spread betting involves a high level of risk and you can lose more than your original stake. It is not suitable for everyone so please ensure that you understand the risks involved and only bet with money you can afford to lose.

For full details of these offers, and apply for your Sporting Index account, click here

Batsman’s Runs

One of Sporting Index’s most popular markets is based on a prediction of how many runs a batsman will score in a Test match (for both innings). For example, here are some of the spreads currently offered:

Pietersen Runs     87 to 94
Trescothick Runs   85 to 92
Strauss Runs       78 to 85

Inzamam Runs       83 to 90
Yousuf Runs        83 to 90
Younis Khan Runs   77 to 84

To bet on Batsmen’s Runs, you either “bet high” at the higher price if you think the batsman will score a lot, or “bet low” if you think that player is out of form and so won’t score many. How much you win (or lose) depends on how right (or wrong) you are!

For example, let’s take the first Test man-of-the-match Mohammad Yousuf. You have a choice to make:

a) Will Yousuf score more than 90 runs,

OR

b) Will Yousuf score less than 83 runs?

Let’s say that you think the stylish right-hander will continue his free-scoring form against England, and stake £2 per run on the outcome…

Let’s say you’re right and Yousuf manages 88 in the first innings and 72 in the second. That is a total of 160 runs in the match. You were betting on him to get more than 90 runs, at £2 per run. You would therefore win (160 - 90) x £2 = 70 x £2 = £140.00

However it could go the other way. Let’s say England manage to find a way through his defence more effectively, and he hits 32 and 28 respectively in both innings to end the match with a total of just 60 runs. Because you bet “high” at 90 runs, there is a shortfall of 30 runs (90 minus 60). At a stake of £2 per run, this would result in a loss of (90 - 60) x £2 = 30 x £2 = £60.00

For all the latest prices on this match, and to open your account, click here

Most pundits agree that Italy gave the most impressive performance in the semi-finals, and Sporting Index have them as slight favourites to edge it by 0 to 0.2 goals. However, they’ve not beaten Les Bleus since 1978. France knocked Italy out in the quarter-finals of 98 World Cup, on penalties. They then met again in the 2000 European Championship final, when a Golden Goal by Trezeguet sealed the match. It’s fair to say these two teams have some histoire…

Following all the low-scoring matches we’ve seen recently, Sporting predict a total of just 2 goals will scored in 90 minutes. Such low goals means that the “Player Goal Minutes” are also low. Strikers Toni and Henry are both priced up at 12 to 15 minutes, a very low spread for players of this quality in good form.

Much will depend on the performance of the playmakers in both teams, namely Pirlo and Zidane. Their “Player Performance” markets (where they are rewarded for good passages of play, and penalised for poor play) are likely to attract interest. Points are awarded for scoring, assisting, shooting, forcing a corner or free kick and much more, but deducted for conceding free kicks or getting cards. When you consider how often the ball comes through these players, it’s worth looking up the latest price for an exciting bet that lasts for the full match.

After some card-happy refereeing in the group matches, things seem to have calmed down now but Sporting Index predict there will still be six yellow cards. Only two were shown in the final four years ago, but the mighty Collina was in charge then. And finally, if you can’t find the right bet but want to have something riding on the game, Sporting Index have some very creative markets that could fit the bill:

Vi-agro - awards five points for each different Italian player fouled by Patrick Vieira. Latest spread = 12 to 14 points.

The Berlin Wall - a market on how many times a defensive wall will be erected in the final. Latest spread = 4 to 5 times.

The Crying Game - how many different players of the losing squad will be seen crying after the final whistle? Sporting think that 4 to 5 players will be reaching for a tissue.

It’s over 30 years since Portugal last beat les Bleus, who have tasted victory in their last seven meetings. Although Portugal are given a big boost by the return of Deco to the midfield, the French have got their tails up and have been made favourites to win by 0.3 to 0.5 goals. Old hands (or should that be legs?) Zidane and Viera have both impressed, along with new blood in the shape of Ribery. He’s not a goalscorer, but his quick brain coupled with quick feet has provided some essential creativity.

France’s weakness lies at the back. Makelele has not looked his best, and as ever Barthez has caused some drama while flapping at high balls. Fortunately there’s not much height in the Portuguese front line; Pauleta is the main threat backed up by Maniche and Deco. Pauleta’s Goal Minutes are priced at 9 to 12 minutes, the same as Zidane. These both look low compared to Henry’s spread of 19 to 22 minutes.

Again, it will be a tight game - France have conceded two goals so far (one was a penalty) to Portugal’s one goal, so Sporting Index has set another low spread of 2.1 to 2.3 goals in the match.