Formbook: horse racing and sports blog

The Premiership kicks off this weekend with last seasons top three teams all featuring in live action. As ever, interest is strong on how the bookies are sizing up their long term chances. Eagle-eyed punters may be able to spot some decent value, especially through Sporting Index’s Season Points Markets. With a free £200 per goal football bet on offer to all new Sporting Index clients** (more details below), you could be celebrating no matter how your team fares. Here are our thoughts on some of the current spreads:
Come What May
Unsurprisingly, Chelsea start the season as firm favourites. However the chasing pack appears better equipped to prevent them equalling Manchester United’s Premiership record of three consecutive titles. Roman’s riches have seen the arrival of Ballack and Shevchenko and Sporting Index have them out in front predicting a total points haul of 87.5 to 89 (a slight dip on last seasons 91 points).

With Alan Smith nearing full fitness, Solskjaer free from injury and Rooney combining with Saha to lead the front line, the Red Devils shouldn’t miss the firepower of Van Nistelrooy too much. If Fergie fails to bring his ninth title to Old Trafford, it’ll be four years since his last Premiership triumph. The second favourites are priced at 77 to 78.5 points.

Liverpool scored some early psychological points with their impressive Community Shield victory over Mourinho’s men. Having added the pace and width of Bellamy, Pennant and Gonzalez, the FA Cup holders are only priced at 75.5 and 77 (they finished last season with 82 points).

Both North London rivals have spent wisely but the Champions League finalists are strongly tipped to improve on last seasons 67 point finish and have a prediction of 75 to 76.5 points. Spurs are strengthened with the signing of Berbatov and Zokora. Davids will stay another season at White Hart Lane. However Sporting Index estimates that for all of Jol’s studious buys, they will repeat their finish of fifth and amass between 61and 62.5 points. 

West Ham and Wigan were two teams that surprised many punters last season, and Portsmouth could be in line to follow suit. Pompey have splashed the cash on the defensive reinforcements of David James, Sol Campbell and have taken Chelsea’s Glen Johnson on loan. With money still to spend, Sporting thinks they’ll avoid another relegation battle and prices them at 46 to 47.5 points.

At the other end of the table there doesn’t seem to be much hope for the promoted clubs as they are all earmarked for a brief stay in the Premiership. Both the Hornets and Blades are joint favourites to go down with a spread of 32 to 33.5 points. Despite Steve Coppell only spending a paltry £2 million over the summer, Reading fare slightly better on 38 to 39.5 points. However, it is worth noting that it is eight years since all three promoted clubs were sent straight back down.

£200 Football Bet for New Clients**

Tempted to try your hand at spread betting? If so, Sporting Index is offering all new clients* a free football bet, to get the ball rolling:

Open a Sporting Index account*, place ten sports bets and claim a free £200 per goal bet on any live Premiership, Championship or League match. Each qualifying bet must be able to win or lose you £20.**

*Credit and suitability checks, **terms and conditions apply. See site for further details about an account with Sporting Index. Sports spread betting involves a high level of risk and you can lose more than your original stake. It is not suitable for everyone so please ensure that you understand the risks involved and only bet with money you can afford to lose.

How Does the Season Points Market Work?
Let’s take Newcastle who are priced at 51.5 to 53 points. If you think they will finish on less than 51.5 points this season, simply bet ‘low’. Alternatively, if you think the Magpies will finish on more than 53 points, bet ‘high’.

For example:

a) Will Newcastle get more than 53 points?

OR

b) Will Newcastle total less than 51.5 points?

Let’s say that you think that their long term injury issues are over and Glenn Roeder continues the St James revolution. Therefore you ‘bet high’ and stake £10 per point on the outcome.

Let’s say you’re right and Parker and co. guide the club to 63 points. You were betting on them to get more than 53 points, at £10 per point. You would therefore win (63 - 53) x £10 = 10 x £10 = £100.

However any optimism held by the black and white faithful could be short lived. Let’s say that Owen’s injury problems continue as do their defensive frailties and they finish on 45 points. Because you bet ‘high’ at 53 points, there is a shortfall of 8 points (53 minus 45). At a stake of £10 per point, this would result in a loss of (53 - 45) x £10 = 8 x £10 = £80.

For all the latest prices on this match, and to open your account, click here

The Steward’s Cup is one of the most fiercely contested sprint handicaps of the year, and the ideal candidate is usually a progressive type, who in many cases makes it to the top of the sprinting tree. If you’re looking for a different kind of bet, where you can bet against horses you think will not perform, as well as backing those you fancy, check out the spread betting markets from Sporting Index. New clients can also take advantage of a free cash offer:

Free £100 Cash for New Clients**

Stewards’ Cup, Glorious Goodwood
As always in this race, the draw can be crucial and although the winner has come down the stand side (low draw), the winner can often be found in the middle to far side of the course (high number). Look at the draw carefully when making your selection! A couple have caught our eye:

Dandy Nicholls trained last year’s winner and has a very good record here. His stable choice is likely to be Tax Free. Lightly raced so far in his career, he has been well supported in Group Two company of late, and has performed with great credit. He will relish the drop back into handicap company and should be there at the finish.

Borderlescott carried on from where he left off last season, winning on his reappearance at York, and then running a decent fourth in Ascot’s Wokingham Handicap. He has since been nosed off in a listed race in Ireland and is a tough front runner.

Firenze finished in front of Borderlescott as Ascot, and is also very progressive. Her sister Frizzante was placed in this race in 2003 before going on to win the Group One July Cup the following year. The family improves with age, and Firenze has a great opportunity with the assistance of Frankie Dettori in the saddle.

An outsider to watch is Out After Dark. He’s been rather out of form in four starts this season. That could be due to his trainer’s poor form in the early part of the year. With the yard now firing, last year’s Portland Handicap winner could be seen flying at the end with his familiar late surge.

Open a Sporting Index account*, place ten sports bets (each with the potential to win and lose £20 or more) and you can claim £100 cash.**

*Credit and suitability checks, **terms and conditions apply. See site for further details about an account with Sporting Index. Sports spread betting involves a high level of risk and you can lose more than your original stake. It is not suitable for everyone so please ensure that you understand the risks involved and only bet with money you can afford to lose

With the emphatic triumph of Old Trafford still fresh in the memory, England hop across the Pennines aiming to wrap up the series at Headingley. Be warned - the last time Pakistan lost to England by an innings (in 2001), they bounced back and won the next Test…

Anticipated overcast conditions will favour the swing and seam of Hoggard rather than man of the moment Monty. English spinners have taken only 2 wickets in the last 8 Test matches played at Headingley.
 
The home team are not without their batting problems and can’t rely on Bell and Cook to carry Pietersen and Trescothick this time. The pressure is on for Chris Read to prove himself as a long term solution at Number 7. His Test average is only around the 15 mark, but recent form (including 150 not out for England A against Pakistan last month) means Jones has had to hand over the gloves.

First Innings Runs
One of Sporting Index’s most popular markets is based on a prediction of how many runs a team will score in the first innings of a Test. This market is available on the morning of the match (as it is influenced by the toss) and Sporting Index is likely to set the spreads at:

England 1st Innings Runs: 380 to 395
Pakistan 1st Innings Runs: 355 to 370

To bet on First Innings Runs, you either “bet high” at the higher price if you think the team will score a lot, or “bet low” if you think that will be dismissed cheaply and won’t score many. How much you win (or lose) depends on how right (or wrong) you are!

For example, let’s take the England 1st Innings Runs. You have a choice to make:

a) Will England score more than 395 runs,
OR
b) Will England score less than 380 runs?

Let’s say that you think the top order will really click and punish the Pakistani attack, so you stake £2 per run on the outcome…

Let’s say you’re right and England manage 450 in the first innings. You were betting on them to get more than 395 runs, at £2 per run. You would therefore win (450 - 395) x £2 = 55 x £2 = £110.00

However it could go the other way. Let’s say the Pakistani pacemen find plenty of swing and seam to skittle England for 360. Because you bet “high” at 395 runs, there is a shortfall of 35 runs (395 minus 360). At a stake of £2 per run, this would result in a loss of (395 - 360) x £2 = 35 x £2 = £70.00

For all the latest prices on this match, and to open your account, click here

Open a Sporting Index account* and place ten sports bets (each with the potential to win and lose £20), and you can claim a free £100 straight into your account**.

*Credit and suitability checks, **terms and conditions apply. See site for further details about an account with Sporting Index. Sports spread betting involves a high level of risk and you can lose more than your original stake. It is not suitable for everyone so please ensure that you understand the risks involved and only bet with money you can afford to lose.

The new Football League campaign gets underway this weekend and what better way to stay involved right through the season than to bet on the Season Points market. Sporting Index is, as always, offering a prediction on how many points all 72 Football League teams will end up with next May. Anyone looking for a shrewd bet before a ball has been kicked should take advantage of the free £200 per goal football bet on offer to all new Sporting Index clients** (details below). Below are some thoughts on the current spreads, to help you get started.
Long Haul
All eyes will be on the teams battling for play-off and promotion places in the Championship. Steve Bruce appears to be well positioned to lead the Blues back up at the first attempt, with few noticeable departures and money to spend following the sale of Heskey and Pennant. Sporting Index make Birmingham the favourites to head the table come the end of the season predicting a total of 76 to 78 points. However, the tough Geordie is under extreme pressure to deliver, and with the board watching his every move, punters may disagree and bet ‘low’ on this prediction.

The real focus will be on teams vying for the play-off positions and a 70-point total should see a side break into the top six this year. Both Sunderland and Crystal Palace have appointed former fan-favourites in Niall Quinn and Peter Taylor to guide them back into the big time. Their spread of 69.5 to 71.5 points for both should see them in the mix come May.

Wolves will also be popular with the punters with their spread set at 63.5 to 65.5 points. Having brought in the top-flight experience of Breen, Bothroyd and Clapham, Mick McCarthy will look to repeat his conquests of 2005 with Sunderland. At the opposite end of the table, there doesn’t seem to be much support for the three newly promoted clubs. Colchester have dithered in appointing a new manager, and have a prediction of 45.5 to 47.5 points. That suggests Geraint Williams will have a tough task of keeping The U’s in the second tier of English football.

How Does the Season Points Market Work?

Let’s take the favourites Birmingham as an example. Sporting Index are predicting that Steve Bruce’s men will finish the season with 76 to 78 points. If you think they will finish on less than 76 points this season, bet ‘low’. Alternatively, if you think Brum will finish on more than 78 points, bet ‘high’. How much you win, or lose, depends on how right or wrong you are.

For example, the choice you have to make:

a) Will Birmingham get more than 78 points?
OR
b) Will Birmingham total less than 76 points?

Let’s say that you think St Andrews will be witnessing Premiership football next season and stake £10 per point on the outcome…

Let’s say you’re right and Forssell and co. fire the club to 85 points. You were betting on them to get more than 78 points, at £10 per point. You would therefore win (85 - 78) x £10 = 7 x £10 = £70.

However it could go the other way. Let’s say that Brum scrape into the play-offs and end the season with a total of 72 points. Because you bet “high” at 78 points, there is a shortfall of 6 points (78 minus 72). At a stake of £10 per point, this would result in a loss of (78 - 72) x £10 = 6 x £10 = £60.

For all the latest prices on this match, and to open your account, click here

Open a Sporting Index account*, place ten sports bets and claim a free £200 per goal bet on any live Premiership, Championship or League match. Each qualifying bet must be able to win or lose you £20.**

*Credit and suitability checks, **terms and conditions apply. See site for further details about an account with Sporting Index. Sports spread betting involves a high level of risk and you can lose more than your original stake. It is not suitable for everyone so please ensure that you understand the risks involved and only bet with money you can afford to lose.