Formbook: horse racing and sports blog

Lying first and second respectively but level on points, will Man Utd or Chelsea edge in front this weekend after their away matches? Interested in having a punt that’s a bit different? With nearly 60 football markets available in-running, check out what’s on offer at Sporting Index.

Wigan v Man Utd (Saturday: 12.45 Sky Sports 1)

Wigan lost to the Red Devils on all three occasions they met last season, and their recent run of form suggests Saturday’s result could be similar. They clearly lack the inventive spark offered by Bullard or those thrusting runs from the back made so often by Chimbonda. However, they can take heart from their performance last season where they lost to a last minute own goal as Fergie’s men came from behind to win. England U-21 international Leighton Baines will also be encouraged to shoot when around the box following last week’s thunderbolt against Germany. Sporting Index don’t think he’ll repeat those heroics and have United to win by a goal. Jewell’s team typically challenge for every ball and they’ve had 11 bookings in their last three games. Last season saw eight yellow cards and Sporting’s spread of five cards by Steve Bennett could raise a few eyebrows with the punters.

Reading v Chelsea (Saturday: 17.15 PremPlus)

Having secured an excellent win at West Ham, Reading will fancy their chances against more London opposition. The Royals won’t be overawed by the occasion of facing champions Chelsea given their recent draw against Man Utd. Coppell has assembled a well-drilled outfit that have won three out of their last four. Chelsea are grinding out wins, averaging only 1.5 goals in their last four games. Reading are struggling themselves up front with six goals in six games and it’s hard to see them penetrate The Blues tight defence. With both teams hardly scoring for fun, Sporting Index surprisingly estimate there to be 2.5 to 2.7 total goals. Mourinho has been rescued by Drogba in the Premiership and in Europe in recent weeks. He needs to carry on that form if he’s to help his side to the one goal victory Sporting predict.

Newcastle v Bolton (Sunday: 16.00 Sky Sports 1)

It’s a case of opposite ends of the form table when these two meet on Sunday. Newcastle have one victory from six and Bolton have only one loss in six. Big Sam hasn’t let the recent controversies affect his teams’ rise to third in the table. They dominated Liverpool at the Reebok and looked untroubled at the back. However Sporting predict The Magpies will win this by 0.1 to 0.3 goals despite Bolton not conceding a goal in their last four matches. Newcastle did win 3-1 last season, ending The Wanderer’s run of eight unbeaten games. History could repeat itself especially when you consider Newcastle’s record against Bolton at St James Park - they’ve won six out of seven and drawn the other!

With the Group teams finalised, the biennial ICC Champions Trophy could give an early indication of how teams will fare in next years cricket World Cup. If you’re thinking about having a bet on the ICC Champions Trophy, it’s well worth checking out the spread betting markets on offer at Sporting Index.

Australia start the tournament in promising form following their recent DLF Cup victory in Malaysia. However they’ve never won the ICC, and have failed to progress past the semi-finals. Their bowling could be hit and miss with Brett Lee winning the Man of the Series at the DLF, but McGrath is returning from injury and could be rusty. If the Aussies are bowling first, the searing Indian heat could take its toll on the 36 year old. With these conditions, the baked pitch will offer plenty of support for the batsmen if not the bowlers. Sporting Index predict there are several teams who’ll thrive on typical sub-continent wickets with each match averaging 500 runs.

Hosts India are co-favourites with Australia to progress from Group A, but are weak in the bowling department. Considering that every match is a day-nighter, will their bowlers be able to find true swing under the lights? Their batting line-up will always hold its own with the likes of Dravid, Sehwag and Dhoni plus Tendulkar showing supreme form following his return from injury. However they lack a true strike bowler to trouble the strongest top-orders. Pathan, Singh and Munaf Patel struggled against the West Indies at the DLF, with the Windies racking up 141-2 off just 20 overs before rain stopped play. If the fervent home crowd get on their back early on, they could struggle to make an impact. England are first up for India and by winning their last two one-dayers against Pakistan, Fletcher’s men could spring a surprise. Bell and Collingwood have strengthened the batting, and new additions Yardy, Read and Dalrymple have settled well. Despite Freddie back in the fold, he might be prevented from bowling as he continues his rehabilitation for The Ashes. England will have to ensure they don’t rely too much on his batting to rescue them when the going gets tough. Defending champions West Indies don’t have too much to write about once the top four of Lara, Gayle, Sarwan and Chanderpaul are gone. They lost by 127 runs in the DLF Cup final to Australia and showed just how brittle they can be. They will also want to avoid Group A by beating Sri Lanka on Saturday to join what looks to be the easier Group B.

The controversy engulfing the Pakistani’s could once again be their downfall. On paper, they should be strong favourites as they can bat down to number eight with great pinch-hitters in Afridi, Razzaq and Malik. However Inzy is missing following the Oval debacle, questions remain over Akhtar’s fitness and they’ve yet to find an effective opening pair. As always, it’s a question of which Pakistan team decides to turn up. Their South Asian rivals Sri Lanka are always one to watch in the one day game. They shared the trophy with India in 2002 and won the World Cup in Asia back in 1996. With Murali and the fiery Malinga in their bowling ranks, on top of a strong top-five batting line-up, they could pose problems for either Group A or B. South Africa and New Zealand won the ICC back in 2000 and 2002 but both may find the conditions challenging. Graeme Smith returns after missing much of the year through injury, and too much pressure rests on the shoulders of Kallis. They’ve yet to convince in the sub-continent and drew 2-2 against India last year and lost 5-0 the year before to Sri Lanka. The same could be said for New Zealand who look to paceman Shane Bond for inspiration. However, do they have enough in the batting department that’s so crucial on the flat wickets of India?

How Does the Total Runs Market Work?

Sporting Index are offering a huge range of ICC Champions Trophy markets to bet on, and one of the most popular is Total Tournament Runs for a player.

This market predicts how many runs a player will score during the tournament.

Let’s take Flintoff who is priced at 95 to 110 runs. If you think he will score more than 110 runs, simply bet ‘high’. Alternatively, if you think he will perform poorly, bet ‘low’ at 95.

For example:

a) Will Freddie get more than 110 runs?

OR

b) Will Freddie get less than 95 runs?

Let’s say that you think the Lancashire all-rounder will be blinding with the bat. Therefore you ‘bet high’ and stake £5 per run on the outcome.

Let’s say you’re right, he punishes the opposition bowlers and totals 140 in the tournament. You were betting on him to get more than 110 runs, at £5 per point. You would therefore win (140 - 110) x £5 = 30 x £5 = £150.

However, lacking match practice, he could struggle and make a total of only 90 runs. Because you bet ‘high’ at 110 runs, there is a shortfall of 20 runs (110 minus 90). At a stake of £5 per run, this would result in a loss of (110 - 90) x £5 = 20 x £5 = £100.

All the home nations are in action this weekend, and there are some other interesting ties such as Italy hosting Ukraine and under-pressure Spain travelling to Sweden. If you’re looking for a bet that’s a bit different, have a good look at the football markets at Sporting Index.

England v Macedonia (Saturday: 17:00 BBC 1)

England came away from Skopje with a hard-fought 1-0 win last month but Sporting Index reckon it should be an easier affair this time round. The Three Lions are predicted to win this by 2.5 to 2.7 goals. These two met in England under similar circumstances four years ago, which ended in an embarrassing 2-2 draw. Sporting reckon there’ll be another flurry of goalmouth action, especially with nine goals in the last two matches played at Old Trafford - they have a spread of 3.3 to 3.5 total goals in the match. Former West Brom midfielder Artim Sakiri scored directly from a corner during that match and he could be the Macedonians’ danger man, as well as Lazio playmaker Goran Pandev. Srecko Katenec’s side are renowned for their playacting abilities, which England will need to be wary of. Markus Merk likes to stamp his authority early on in the game and is predicted to show 4 yellow cards.

Scotland v France (Saturday: 17:00 Sky Sports 1)

Scotland and France lock horns for Group B’s top of the table clash, and both have taken maximum points from their opening matches. The Tartan Army surprised many with a fine performance away to Lithuania; Kenny Miller’s 62nd minute goal turned out to be the winner but he’ll miss this one through suspension. Walter Smith has a whole host of injuries which leaves him with an inexperienced team. Raymond Domenech has fitness worries over Saha and Govou, who netted a brace against Italy in their last match. Despite McFadden and Barry Ferguson returning to the side, Sporting Index reckon the World Cup finalists will win by one goal. Although the Scots lost 5-0 to France in their most recent encounter, Sporting don’t envisage a similar goal spree - they predict two to three goals in total this time. The French are feisty opposition and all eyes will be on the midfield tussle between Ferguson and Viera. It could be a busy afternoon for the Swiss referee, and Sporting estimate he’ll caution four players.

Wales v Slovakia (Saturday: 15:00 Sky Sports 1)

On paper, Wales should win this one. Slovakia lost 3-0 at home to the Czech Republic which will give Toshack’s team some comfort given that they were beaten by the Czech’s only by a last minute goal. Although Giggs will miss out for the first time in two years through injury, the creative talents of Koumas will be relied upon. He can make the difference with his superb range of passing which the likes of Bellamy and Earnshaw thrive on. Sporting have them to shade this by 0 to 0.2 goals. Cardiff’s Paul Parry has been in excellent form on the wing this season and he can provide new captain Bellamy with the ammunition he needs. Wales however have struggled for goals, scoring once in their last three international matches. Sporting find it hard to see where the goals could come from and reckon there’ll be 2.2 to 2.4 total goals - though Slovakia did whack six past Cyprus last month!